Category: Market Review

Every Rose Has Its Thorn The Cautionary Tale of Valuation February 2024 Key Observations Most risk assets advanced in February as optimism remains that the no-show recession of 2023 continues to fade further into the rear-view mirror. As a result, fixed income investors have also tempered the expectations around rate cuts and longer duration assets […]

Prepare Not Predict Interest Rate Challenges into Opportunities December 2023 Key Observations  Our 10-year return forecasts show increased opportunity across fixed income and real assets with a modest step back for equities. This makes for one of the more attractive risk-adjusted returns for fixed income relative to equities we have seen in several years. We […]

Market Review Cheerful for the Holidays Markets rallied in November giving investors plenty for which to be thankful. November 2023 Key Observations  Longer dated interest rates experienced a significant decline as market sentiment leaned towards anticipating 2024 rate cuts. Overall, markets showed positivity, driven by heightened risk appetites fueled by the decrease in rates and […]

Market Review Summer Doldrums Markets took a step back in August as sentiment shifted surrounding Fed policy August 2023 Key Observations  Fitch downgraded the United States’ credit rating to AA+ from AAA at the start of the month. Market volatility continued through the month and most major asset classes experienced negative returns. Higher interest rates […]

Markets Heat Up in July Favorable economic data fuels risk assets as markets post solid gains during July 2023. Key Observations Markets posted favorable returns in July as investors found renewed optimism in economic data being reported, even in the face of year-over-year earnings declines. The Federal Reserve raised rates in July, now targeting 5.25-5.5% […]

Recessionary Resilience – Defying Expectations Key Observations In our 2023 Outlook, Goodbye TINA, we outlined three broad themes that were likely to influence markets in 2023 – continued volatility, moderating inflation and a bear market bottom. The first half of 2023 has largely validated those views and we do not anticipate material changes ahead of […]

Hot Data, Cool Markets, Good News While markets retreat, the shift in rate expectations show signs the end of rate hikes is near February 2023 Key Observations Strong economic data pushed market expectations to 0.5% more rate hikes by year end. While perhaps overdone, this speaks to the end is near on rising rates. With […]

Markets Start 2023 Off with a Bang Filter out the noise and stay the course January 2023 Key Observations Market Recap Broad asset classes kicked off the new year higher after a not-so-jolly December. Sentiment turned decidedly positive based on slowing wage and job growth and cooling price pressures. These trends provided optimism for a […]

Key Observations Our investment views are based on a simple idea: as facts change, so may our outlook. The last few years have been an interesting period for this ethos as our annual outlook is beginning to feel like a game of ping-pong, oscillating between bulls and bears, as the environment shifts around us. Our […]

We’d like to share our capital market forecasts for this decade. We update asset class assumptions annually to reflect 10-year estimates for asset class returns, standard deviations, skewness, kurtosis and correlations.